Tour de France Predictions

Let the HOOPLA begin! Oh, guess it already did. Lets see, just got my Bicycling Mag, read the Outside piece; did an interview with the Austin newspaper; etc, etc, etc.... So, my POV?

Lance Armstrong Wins 7th!

Ok, I'm not going out on a limb here. It is the safest and most politically correct way to predict the finish. Actually, last year I didn't pick Lance because of his seeming fallability in 03, but he stomped that down last year, and well, I learned my lesson. I think everyone else who COULD beat Lance also learned the same lesson: Don't mess with this Texan.

The Tour was boring last year. Postal dominated starting with Lance's prologue followed by the bruising team time trial. That day of the TTT, the others must have felt steamrolled. Then, on the way up to La Mongie, the big names fell to pieces and Lance stomped them down. The race was over. It was boring in the sense that we all knew Lance would win; there was still drama in the green jersey all the way to the end which actually was the most exciting aspect of the race.

So, this year, I predict a repeat. There are of course strong contenders, but none of them have the will power and guts to slap Lance down. Nobody would dare. In an interview Ivan Basso said "Lance is unbeatable". He knows it, but of course he is going to compete, maybe for another colored jersey. Jan Ulrich is giving his annual "I'm ready" speach; but I don't even see Ulrich on the podium. His team mates Kloden and Vinikourov will work for him until about the stage to Briancon when one of them will have to chase down Lance and Co leaving Ulrich behind to ponder his potential lost in the hazy days of "X" and parties. Vino or Kloden may hang on; T-mobile is strong enough to get a podium finish.

Other also rans to watch for in my totally biased and distorted opinion: Levi Leipheimer - strong contender, not enough though. Is Gerolsteiner able to pull him along? Phonak has some strong riders, but Santiago Botero already peaked at the Dauphine and will crack mid-tour falling way off to the back. Floyd Landis has foresaken Discovery to pursue his own dreams - godspeed - but there seems to be an insurmountable mental hurdle Landis will have to get over to face down Lance and it won't happen.

Who will be the surprise sensation this year? Who the hell knows. Thomas Voeckler was great last year, and no matter who it will be, anyone who can give it what Voeckler did will win hearts. It may well be another Frenchman, as the French are now without Richard Virenque and 2 years gone from Laurent Jalabert. They need a star to step up and win some stages, wear yellow for a day or 2, and maybe get a jersey.

So, here we go:

GC - top finishers:
PODIUM in order: 1. Armstrong 2. Vinokourov 3. Basso

remaining ten - no order: Bobby Julich, Levi Leipheimer, Jan Ulrich, Andreas Kloden, Santiago Botero, and some surprise Frenchman followed by a Discovery Channel team mates of Lance.


Points/Green Jersey:
An Aussie again? Probably; see Robbie McEwen - he's tough but old. Baden Cooke will take it this year, but Tom Boonen may surprise.


Climbing/Polka Dot:
Wide Open - a spaniard will take it; pick one! Mayo is good enough, can he hold it together to the finish? Roberto Heras possible.


White/Best Young Rider - I have no friggin idea

And finally, my prediction for 2006: 75% dropoff in Americans traveling to the Tour de France; no daily TV coverage...